Global variation in prior exposure shapes antibody neutralization profiles of SARS-CoV-2 variants up to BA.2.86 (preprint)

The highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variant, BA.2.86, and its descendants are now the most frequently sequenced variants of SARS-CoV-2. We analyze antibody neutralization data from eight laboratories from the UK, USA, Denmark, and China, including two datasets assessing the effect of XBB.1.5 vaccines, to determine the effect of infection and vaccination history on neutralization of variants up to and including BA.2.86, and produce antibody landscapes to describe these neutralization profiles. We find evidence for lower levels of immune imprinting on pre-Omicron variants in sera collected from Denmark and China, which may be explained by lower levels of circulation of the ancestral variant in these countries, and the use of an inactivated virus vaccine in China.

Enhanced immune ageing associated with increasing COVID-19 disease severity (preprint)

Background The striking increase in COVID-19 severity in older adults provides a clear example of immunesenescence, the age-related remodelling of the immune system. To better characterise the association between convalescent immunesenescence and acute disease severity, we determined the immune phenotype of COVID-19 survivors and non-infected controls.Results We performed detailed immune phenotyping of peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from 103 COVID-19 survivors 3–5 months post recovery who were classified as having had severe (n = 56; age 53.12 ± 11.30 years), moderate (n = 32; age 52.28 ± 11.43 years) or mild (n = 15; age 49.67 ± 7.30 years) disease and compared with age and sex-matched healthy adults (n = 59; age 50.49 ± 10.68 years). We assessed a broad range of immune cell phenotypes to generate a composite score, IMM-AGE, to determine the degree of immune senescence. We found increased immunesenescence features in severe COVID-19 survivors compared to controls including: a reduced frequency and number of naïve CD4 and CD8 T cells (p < 0.0001); increased frequency of EMRA CD4 (p < 0.003) and CD8 T cells (p < 0.001); a higher frequency (p < 0.0001) and absolute numbers (p < 0.001) of CD28− ve CD57+ ve senescent CD4 and CD8 T cells; higher frequency (p < 0.003) and absolute numbers (p < 0.02) of PD-1 expressing exhausted CD8 T cells; a two-fold increase in Th17 polarisation (p < 0.0001); higher frequency of memory B cells (p < 0.001) and increased frequency (p < 0.0001) and numbers (p < 0.001) of CD57+ ve senescent NK cells. As a result, the IMM-AGE score was significantly higher in severe COVID-19 survivors than in controls (p < 0.001). Few differences were seen for those with moderate disease and none for mild disease. Regression analysis revealed the only pre-existing variable influencing the IMM-AGE score was South Asian ethnicity (\(\beta\) = 0.174, p= 0.043), with a major influence being disease severity (\(\beta\) = 0.188, p = 0.01).Conclusions Our analyses reveal a state of enhanced immune ageing in survivors of severe COVID-19 and suggest this could be related to SARS-Cov-2 infection. Our data support the rationale for trials of anti-immune ageing interventions for improving clinical outcomes in these patients with severe disease.

Association between antibody responses post-vaccination and severe COVID-19 outcomes: national population-based cohort study in Scotland (preprint)

Several population-level studies have described individual clinical risk factors associated with suboptimal antibody responses following COVID-19 vaccination, but none have examined multimorbidity. Others have shown that suboptimal post-vaccination responses offer reduced protection to subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, the level of protection from COVID-19 hospitalisation/death remains unconfirmed. We use national Scottish datasets to investigate the association between multimorbidity and testing antibody-negative, examining the correlation between antibody levels and subsequent COVID-19 hospitalisation/death among double-vaccinated individuals. We found that individuals with multimorbidity (≥five conditions) were more likely to test antibody-negative post-vaccination and 13.37 [6.05 - 29.53] times more likely to be hospitalised/die from COVID-19 than individuals without conditions. We also show a dose-dependent association between post-vaccination antibody levels and COVID-19 hospitalisation or death, with those with undetectable antibody levels at a significantly higher risk (HR 9.21 [95% CI 4.63 - 18.29]) of these serious outcomes compared to those with high antibody levels.

Effectiveness of successive booster vaccine doses against SARS-CoV-2 related mortality in residents of Long-Term Care Facilities in the VIVALDI study (preprint)

We evaluated the effectiveness of 1-3 booster vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 related mortality among a cohort of 13407 older residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) participating in the VIVALDI study in England in 2022. Cox regression was used to estimate relative hazards of SARS-CoV-2 related death following booster vaccination relative to 2 doses (after 84+ days), stratified by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and adjusting for age, sex and LTCF capacity. Each booster provided additional short-term protection relative to primary vaccination, with consistent pattern of waning to 45-75% reduction in risk beyond 112 days.

Clinical effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccine against Omicron infection in residents and staff of Long-Term Care Facilities: a prospective cohort study (VIVALDI) (preprint)

Background Successive SARS-CoV-2 variants have caused severe disease in long-term care facility (LTCF) residents. Primary vaccination provides strong short-term protection, but data are limited on duration of protection following booster vaccines, particularly against the Omicron variant. We investigated effectiveness of booster vaccination against infections, hospitalisations and deaths among LTCF residents and staff in England. Methods We included residents and staff of LTCFs within the VIVALDI study ( ISRCTN 14447421 ) who underwent routine, asymptomatic testing (December 12 2021-March 31 2022). Cox regression was used to estimate relative hazards of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and associated hospitalisation and death at 0-13, 14-48, 49-83 and 84 days after dose 3 of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination compared to 2 doses (after 84+ days), stratified by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and adjusting for age, sex, LTCF capacity and local SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Results 14175 residents and 19973 staff were included. In residents without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, infection risk was reduced 0-83 days after first booster, but no protection was apparent after 84 days. Additional protection following booster vaccination waned, but was still present at 84+ days for COVID-associated hospitalisation (aHR: 0.47, 0.24-0.89) and death (aHR: 0.37, 0.21-0.62). Most residents (64.4%) had received primary course of AstraZeneca, but this did not impact on pre- or post-booster risks. Staff showed a similar pattern of waning booster effectiveness against infection, with few hospitalisations and no deaths. Conclusions Booster vaccination provides sustained protection against severe outcomes following infection with the Omicron variant, but no protection against infection from 3 months onwards. Ongoing surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in LTCFs is crucial. Summary The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted residents in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Booster vaccination provides sustained moderate protection against severe outcomes, but no protection against infection was apparent from around 3 months onwards. Ongoing surveillance in LTCFs is crucial.

Primary Omicron infection elicits weak antibody response but robust cellularimmunity in children (preprint)

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is now globally dominant but despite high prevalence little is known regarding the immune response in children. We determined the antibody and cellular immune response following Omicron infection in children aged 6-14 years and related this to prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination status. Primary Omicron infection elicited a weak antibody response and only 53% of children developed detectable neutralising antibodies. In contrast, children with secondary Omicron infection following prior infection with a pre-Omicron variant developed 24-fold higher antibody titres and neutralisation of Omicron. Vaccination elicited the highest levels of antibody response and was also strongly immunogenic following prior natural infection with Omicron. Cellular responses against Omicron were robust and broadly equivalent in all study groups. These data reveal that primary Omicron infection elicits a weak humoral immune response in children and may presage a clinical profile of recurrent infection as seen with antecedent seasonal coronaviruses. Vaccination may represent the most effective approach to control infection whilst cellular immunity should offer strong clinical protection.

Strong peak immunogenicity but rapid antibody waning following third vaccine dose in elderly residents of care homes (preprint)

Third dose COVID-19 vaccines are being deployed widely but their efficacy has not been assessed adequately in vulnerable elderly people who exhibit suboptimal responses after primary series vaccination. We studied spike-specific immune responses in 341 staff and residents in long-term care facilities (LTCF) who received an mRNA vaccine following dual primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. Third dose vaccination strongly increased antibody responses with preferential enhancement in older people and was required to elicit neutralisation of Omicron. Cellular immune responses were also enhanced with strong cross-reactive recognition of Omicron. However, antibody titres fell 21-78% within 100 days post vaccine and 27% of participants developed a breakthrough Omicron infection. These findings reveal strong immunogenicity of a 3rd vaccine in one of the most vulnerable population groups and endorse an approach for widespread delivery across this population. Ongoing assessment will be required to determine the stability of immune protection.

Broad SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific CD4+ T-cell response preserves recognition of variants of concern (preprint)

CD4 + T-cells are essential for protection against viruses including SARS-CoV-2. Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) can enhance infectivity and reduce antibody recognition. CD4 + T-cell sensitivity to mutations is less well understood because few epitopes have been mapped. Characterising > 100 SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4 + T-cell clones from convalescent healthcare workers, we mapped and HLAII restricted 21 epitopes across three viral proteins. Responses to the same spike epitopes were also present after vaccination of uninfected individuals. Lack of CD4 + T-cell cross-reactivity with endemic beta-coronaviruses suggests these responses arose from naïve T-cells rather than pre-existing cross-reactive coronavirus-specific T-cell responses. 10/17 spike epitopes were mutated in VOCs and CD4 + T-cell recognition of 7 was impaired, including 3 of 4 epitopes mutated in Omicron. Broad CD4 + T-cell targeting of epitopes likely limits evasion by current VOCs. However, continued genomic surveillance is vital to identify new emerging mutations able to evade CD4 + T-cell immunity.

Duration of vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV2 infection, hospitalisation, and death in residents and staff of Long-Term Care Facilities (VIVALDI): a prospective cohort study, England, Dec 2020-Dec 2021 (preprint)

Background Long-term care facilities (LTCF) have been prioritised for vaccination, but data on potential waning of vaccine effectiveness (VE) and the impact of booster doses in this vulnerable population remains scarce. Methods We included residents and staff from 331 LTCFs enrolled in VIVALDI (ISRCTN 14447421), who underwent routine PCR testing between Dec 8, 2020 - Dec 11, 2021 in a Cox proportional hazards regression, estimating VE against SARS-CoV2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalisation, and COVID-19-related death after 1-3 vaccine doses, stratifying by previous SARS-CoV2 exposure. Results For 15,518 older residents, VE declined from 50.7% (15.5, 71.3) to 17.2% (-23.9, 44.6) against infection; from 85.4% (60.7, 94.6) to 54.3% (26.2, 71.7) against hospitalisation; and from 94.4% (76.4, 98.7) to 62.8% (32.9, 79.4) against death, when comparing 2-12 weeks and [≥]12 weeks after two doses. For 19,515 staff, VE against infection declined slightly from 50.3% (32.7, 63.3) to 42.1% 29.5, 52.4). High VE was restored following a third dose, with VE of 71.6% (53.5, 82.7) and 78.3% (70.1, 84.3) against infection and 89.9% (80.0, 94.6) and 95.8% (50.4, 99.6) against hospitalisation, for residents and staff respectively; and 97.5% (88.1, 99.5) against death for residents. Interpretation Substantial waning of VE is observed against all outcomes in residents from 12 weeks after a primary course of AstraZeneca or mRNA vaccines. Boosters restore protection, and maximise immunity across all outcomes. These findings demonstrate the importance of boosting and the need for ongoing surveillance of VE in this vulnerable cohort. Funding UK Government Department of Health and Social Care.

Serological responses and six-month trajectories to COVID-19 Comirnaty and Spikevax booster vaccine, September 2021 to January 2022, London, United Kingdom (preprint)

In contrast to the increasing levels of high avidity S antibody measured by the Roche assay in the first 6 months following natural infection, marked waning is seen post 2 or 3 doses of vaccine. Although the kinetics differ between those with vaccine-induced immunity compared to those infected prior to vaccination (hybrid immunity), waning rates appear to be similar following 2 or 3 doses of vaccine. These data should allow countries to optimise the timing of future doses of vaccine.

SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike antibody levels following second dose of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BNT162b2 in residents of long-term care facilities in England (VIVALDI) (preprint)

Background General population studies have shown strong humoral response following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with subsequent waning of anti-spike antibody levels. Vaccine-induced immune responses are often attenuated in frail and older populations such as Long-Term Care Facility (LTCF) residents but published data are scarce. Methods VIVALDI is a prospective cohort study in England which links serial blood sampling in LTCF staff and residents to routine healthcare records. We measured quantitative titres of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike antibodies in residents and staff following second vaccination dose with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) or BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). We investigated differences in peak antibody levels and rates of decline using linear mixed effects models. Results We report on 1317 samples from 402 residents (median age 86 years, IQR 78-91) and 632 staff (50 years, 37-58), ≤280 days from second vaccination dose. Peak antibody titres were 7.9-fold higher after Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine compared to Oxford-AstraZeneca (95%CI 3.6-17.0; P <0.01) but rate of decline was increased, and titres were similar at 6 months. Prior infection was associated with higher peak antibody levels in both Pfizer-BioNTech (2.8-fold, 1.9-4.1; P <0.01) and Oxford-AstraZeneca (4.8-fold, 3.2-7.1; P <0.01) recipients and slower rates of antibody decline. Increasing age was associated with a modest reduction in peak antibody levels for Oxford-AstraZeneca recipients. Conclusions Double-dose vaccination elicits robust and stable antibody responses in older LTCF residents, suggesting comparable levels of vaccine-induced immunity to that in the general population. Antibody levels are higher after Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination but fall more rapidly compared to Oxford-AstraZeneca recipients and are enhanced by prior infection in both groups.

Severe outcomes in residents of Long Term Care Facilities following infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (VIVALDI study) (preprint)

Background Recently there has been a rapid, global increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections associated with the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). Although severity of Omicron cases may be reduced, the scale of infection suggests hospital admissions and deaths may be substantial. Definitive conclusions about disease severity require evidence from populations with the greatest risk of severe outcomes, such as residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs). Methods We used a cohort study to compare the risk of hospital admission or death in LTCF residents in England who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the period shortly before Omicron emerged (Delta dominant) and the Omicron-dominant period, adjusting for age, sex, vaccine type, and booster vaccination. Variants were confirmed by sequencing or spike-gene status in a subset. Results Risk of hospital admission was markedly lower in 398 residents infected in the pre-Omicron period (10.8% hospitalised, 95% CI: 8.13-14.29) compared to 1241 residents infected in the Omicron-period (4.01% hospitalised, 95% CI: 2.87-5.59, adjusted Hazard Ratio 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29-0.87, p=0.014); findings were similar in residents with confirmed variant. No residents with previous infection were hospitalised in either period. Mortality was lower in the Omicron versus the pre-Omicron period, (p<0.0001). Conclusions Risk of severe outcomes in LTCF residents with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was substantially lower than that seen for previous variants. This suggests the current wave of Omicron infections is unlikely to lead to a major surge in severe disease in LTCF populations with high levels of vaccine coverage and/or natural immunity. Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN 14447421

Serological responses to COVID-19 booster vaccine in England (preprint)

Importance: There are limited data on immune responses after COVID-19 vaccine boosters in individuals receiving primary immunisation with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or AZD1222 (AstraZeneca) Objective: To assess SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses before and after booster vaccination with BNT162b2 in adults receiving two BNT162b2 or AZD1222 vaccine doses at least 6 months previously, as part of the United Kingdom national immunisation schedule Design: Prospective, cohort study Setting: London, England Participants: 750 immunocompetent adults aged [≥]50 years Interventions: A single dose of BNT162b2 administered at least six months after primary immunisation with two doses of BNT162b2 given <30 days apart (BNT162b2-control) or [≥]30 days apart (BNT162b2-extended) compared to AZD1222 given [≥]30 days apart (AZD1222-extended) Main Outcome and Measures: SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibody geometric mean titres (GMTs) before and 2-4 weeks after booster Results: Of 750 participants, 626 provided serum samples for up to 38 weeks after their second vaccine dose. Antibody GMTs peaked at 2-4 weeks after the second dose, before declining by 68% at 36-38 weeks after dose 2 for BNT162b2-control participants, 85% at 24-29 weeks for BNT162b2-extended participants and 78% at 24-29 weeks for AZD1222-extended participants. Antibody GMTs was highest in BNT162b2-extended participants (942 [95%CI, 797-1113]) than AZD1222-extended (183 [124-268]) participants at 24-29 weeks or BNT162b2-control participants at 36-38 weeks (208; 95%CI, 150-289). At 2-4 weeks after booster, GMTs were significantly higher than after primary vaccination in all three groups: 18,104 (95%CI, 13,911-23,560; n=47) in BNT162b2-control (76.3-fold), 13,980 (11,902-16,421; n=118) in BNT162b2-extended (15.9-fold) and 10,799 (8,510-13,704; n=43) in AZD1222-extended (57.2-fold) participants. BNT162b2-control participants (median:262 days) had a longer interval between primary and booster doses than BNT162b2-extended or AZD1222-extended (both median:186 days) participants. Conclusions and Relevance: We observed rapid serological responses to boosting with BNT162b2, irrespective of vaccine type or schedule used for primary immunisation, with higher post-booster responses with longer interval between primary immunisation and boosting. Boosters will not only provide additional protection for those at highest risk of severe COVID-19 but also prevent infection and, therefore, interrupt transmission, thereby reducing infections rates in the population. Ongoing surveillance will be important for monitoring the duration of protection after the booster.

mRNA COVID-19 vaccines induce enhanced antibody and cellular responses compared to ChAdOx1 or natural infection in children (preprint)

We present a comprehensive analysis of antibody and cellular responses in children aged 12-16 years who received COVID-19 vaccination with ChAdOx1 (n=6) or mRNA vaccine (mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2, n=9) using a 12-week extended-interval schedule. mRNA vaccination of seropositive children induces high antibody levels, with one dose, but a second dose is required in infection-naïve children. Following a second ChAdOx1 dose, antibody titres were higher than natural infection, but lower than mRNA vaccination. Vaccination induced live virus neutralising antibodies against Alpha, Beta and Delta variants, however, a second dose is required in infection-naïve children. We found higher T-cell responses following mRNA vaccination than ChAdOx1. Phenotyping of responses showed predominantly early effector-memory CD4 T cell populations, with a type-1 cytotoxic cytokine signature, with IL-10. These data demonstrate mRNA vaccination induces a co-ordinated superior antibody and robust cellular responses in children. Seronegative children require a prime-boost regime for optimal protection.

Impaired Neutralisation of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Vaccinated Patients With B Cell Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia (preprint)

Background: Immune suppression is a clinical feature of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) and patients show increased vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2 infection and suboptimal antibody responses.Method: We studied antibody responses in 500 patients following dual COVID-19 vaccination to assess the magnitude, correlates of response, stability and functional activity of the spike-specific antibody response with 2 different vaccine platforms.Results: Spike-specific seroconversion post-vaccine was seen in 67% of patients compared to 100% of age-matched controls. Amongst responders, titres were 3.7 times lower than the control group. Antibody responses showed a 33% fall over the next 4 months. The use of an mRNA (n=204) or adenovirus-based (n=296) vaccine platform did not impact on antibody response. Male gender, BTKi therapy, prophylactic antibiotics use and low serum IgA/IgM were predictive of failure to respond. Antibody responses after CD20-targeted immunotherapy recovered 12 months-post treatment. Post-vaccine sera from CLL patients with Spike-specific antibody response showed markedly reduced neutralisation of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant compared to healthy controls. Patients with previous natural SARS-CoV-2 infection showed equivalent antibody levels and function as healthy donors after vaccination.Interpretation: These findings demonstrate impaired antibody responses following dual COVID-19 vaccination in patients with CLL and further define patient risk groups. Furthermore, humoral protection against the globally-dominant delta variant is markedly impaired in CLL patients and indicates the need for further optimisation of immune protection in this patient cohort.Funding Information: This work was partially supported by the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC) funded by DHSC/UKRI and the National Core Studies Immunity programme.Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: Informed consent was obtained by remote consultation and work performed under the CIA UPH IRAS approval (REC 20\NW\0240) from North-West and Preston ethics committee and conducted according to the Declaration of Helsinki.

Prevalence and duration of detectable SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody in staff and residents of long-term care facilities over the first year of the pandemic (VIVALDI study): prospective cohort study (preprint)

BackgroundLong Term Care Facilities (LTCF) have reported high SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and related mortality, but the proportion infected amongst survivors and duration of the antibody response to natural infection is unknown. We determined the prevalence and stability of nucleocapsid antibodies - the standard assay for detection of prior infection - in staff and residents from 201 LTCFs. MethodsProspective cohort study of residents aged >65 years and staff of LTCFs in England (11 June 2020-7 May 2021). Serial blood samples were tested for IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein. Prevalence and cumulative incidence of antibody-positivity were weighted to the LTCF population. Cumulative incidence of sero-reversion was estimated from Kaplan-Meier curves. Results9488 samples were included, 8636 (91%) of which could be individually-linked to 1434 residents or 3288 staff members. The cumulative incidence of nucleocapsid seropositivity was 35% (95% CI: 30-40%) in residents and 26% (95% CI: 23-30%) in staff over 11 months. The incidence rate of loss of antibodies (sero-reversion) was 2{middle dot}1 per 1000 person-days at risk, and median time to reversion was around 8 months. InterpretationAt least one-quarter of staff and one-third of surviving residents were infected during the first two pandemic waves. Nucleocapsid-specific antibodies often become undetectable within the first year following infection which is likely to lead to marked underestimation of the true proportion of those with prior infection. Since natural infection may act to boost vaccine responses, better assays to identify natural infection should be developed. FundingUK Government Department of Health and Social Care. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSA search was conducted of Ovid MEDLINE and MedRxiv on 21 July 2021 to identify studies conducted in long term care facilities (LTCF) that described seroprevalence using the terms "COVID-19" or "SARS-CoV-2" and "nursing home" or "care home" or "residential" or "long term care facility" and "antibody" or "serology" without date or language restrictions. One meta-analysis was identified, published before the introduction of vaccination, that included 2 studies with a sample size of 291 which estimated seroprevalence as 59% in LTCF residents. There were 28 seroprevalence surveys of naturally-acquired SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in LTCFs; 16 were conducted in response to outbreaks and 12 conducted in care homes without known outbreaks. 16 studies included more than 1 LTCF and all were conducted in Autumn 2020 after the first wave of infection but prior to subsequent peaks. Seroprevalence studies conducted following a LTCF outbreak were biased towards positivity as the included population was known to have been previously infected. In the 12 studies that were conducted outside of known outbreaks, seroprevalence varied significantly according to local prevalence of infection. The largest of these was a cross-sectional study conducted in 9,000 residents and 10,000 staff from 362 LTCFs in Madrid, which estimated seroprevalence in staff as 31{middle dot}5% and 55{middle dot}4% in residents. However, as this study was performed in one city, it may not be generalisable to the whole of Spain and sequential sampling was not performed. Of the 28 studies, 9 undertook longitudinal sampling for a maximum of four months although three of these reported from the same cohort of LTCFs in London. None of the studies reported on antibody waning amongst the whole resident population. Added value of this studyWe estimated the proportion of care home staff and residents with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection using data from over 3,000 staff and 1,500 residents in 201 geographically dispersed LTCFs in England. Population selection was independent of outbreak history and the sample is therefore more reflective of the population who reside and work in LTCFs. Our estimates of the proportion of residents with prior natural infection are substantially higher than estimates based on population-wide PCR testing, due to limited testing coverage at the start of the pandemic. 1361 individuals had at least one positive antibody test and participants were followed for up to 11 months, which allowed modelling of the time to loss of antibody in over 600 individuals in whom the date of primary infection could be reliably estimated. This is the longest reported serological follow up in a population of LTCF residents, a group who are known to be most at risk of severe outcomes following infection with SARS-CoV-2 and provides important evidence on the duration that nucleocapsid antibodies remained detectable over the first and second waves of the pandemic. Implications of all available researchA substantial proportion of the LTCF population will have some level of natural immunity to infection as a result of past infection. Immunological studies have highlighted greater antibody responses to vaccination in seropositive individuals, so vaccine efficacy in this population may be affected by this large pool of individuals who have survived past infection. In addition, although the presence of nucleocapsid-specific antibodies is generally considered as the standard marker for prior infection, we find that antibody waning is such that up to 50% of people will lose detectable antibody responses within eight months. Individual prior natural infection history is critical to assess the impact of factors such as vaccine response or protection against re-infection. These findings may have implications for duration of immunity following natural infection and indicate that alternative assays for prior infection should be developed.

Robust SARS-CoV-2-specific and heterologous immune responses after natural infection in elderly residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (preprint)

Long term care facilities (LTCF) provide residential and/or nursing care support for frail and elderly people and many have suffered from a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Although mortality rates have been high in LTCF residents there is little information regarding the features of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity after infection in this setting or how this may influence immunity to other infections. We studied humoral and cellular immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in 152 LTCF staff and 124 residents over a prospective 4-month period shortly after the first wave of infection and related viral serostatus to heterologous immunity to other respiratory viruses and systemic inflammatory markers. LTCF residents developed high levels of antibodies against spike protein and RBD domain which were stable over 4 months of follow up. Nucleocapsid-specific responses were also elevated in elderly donors but showed waning across all populations. Antibodies showed stable and equivalent levels of functional inhibition against spike-ACE2 binding in all age groups with comparable activity against viral variants of concern. SARS-CoV-2 seropositive donors showed high levels of antibodies to other beta-coronaviruses but serostatus did not impact humoral immunity to influenza or RSV. SARS-CoV-2-specific cellular responses were equivalent across the life course but virus-specific populations showed elevated levels of activation in older donors. LTCF residents who are survivors of SARS-CoV-2 infection thus show robust and stable immunity which does not impact responses to other seasonal viruses. These findings augur well for relative protection of LTCF residents to re-infection. Furthermore, they underlie the potent influence of previous infection on the immune response to Covid-19 vaccine which may prove to be an important determinant of future vaccine strategy. One sentence summeryCare home residents show waning of nucleocapsid specific antibodies and enhanced expression of activation markers on SARS-CoV-2 specific cells

Higher serological responses and increased vaccine effectiveness demonstrate the value of extended vaccine schedules in combatting COVID-19 in England (preprint)

IntroductionIn January 2021, the UK decided to prioritise the delivery of the first dose of BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) and AZD1222 (AstraZeneca) vaccines by extending the interval until the second dose up to 12 weeks. MethodsSerological responses were compared after BNT162b2 and AZD1222 vaccination with varying intervals in uninfected and previously-infected adults aged 50-89 years. These findings are evaluated against real-world national vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates against COVID-19 in England. ResultsWe recruited 750 participants aged 50-89 years, including 126 (16.8%) with evidence of previous infection; 421 received BNT162b2 and 329 and AZD1222. For both vaccines, over 95% had seroconverted 35-55 days after dose one, and 100% seroconverted 7+ days after dose 2. Following a 65-84 day interval between two doses, geometric mean titres (GMTs) at 14-34 days were 6-fold higher for BNT162b2 (6703; 95%CI, 5887-7633) than AZD1222 (1093; 806-1483), which in turn were higher than those receiving BNT162b2 19-29 days apart (694; 540 - 893). For both vaccines, VE was higher across all age-groups from 14 days after dose two compared to one dose, but the magnitude varied with interval between doses. Higher two-dose VE was observed with >6 week intervals between BNT162b2 doses compared to the authorised 3-week schedule, including [≥]80 year-olds. ConclusionOur findings support the UK approach of prioritising the first dose of COVID-19 vaccines, with evidence of higher protection following extended schedules. Given global vaccine constraints, these results are relevant to policymakers, especially with highly transmissible variants and rising incidence in many countries. FundingPublic Health England

Differential Immunogenicity of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 Vaccines After Extended-Interval Homologous Dual Vaccination in Older People (preprint)

Background: Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have shown clinical efficacy against Covid-19 infection but there remains uncertainty about the immune responses elicited by different regimens. This is a particularly important question for older people who are at increased clinical risk following infection and in whom immune senescence may limit vaccine responses. The BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 adenovirus vaccines were the first two vaccines deployed in the UK programme using an 8-12 week ‘extended interval’. Objectives: We undertook analysis of the spike-specific antibody and cellular immune response in 131 participants aged 80+ years after the second dose of ‘extended interval’ dual vaccination with either BNT162b2 mRNA (n=54) or ChAdOx1 (n=77) adenovirus vaccine. Blood samples were taken 2-3 weeks after second vaccine and were paired with samples taken at 5-weeks after first vaccine which have been reported previously. Antibody responses were measured using the Elecsys® electrochemiluminescence immunoassay assay and cellular responses were assessed by IFN-g ELISpot. Results: Antibody responses against spike protein became detectable in all donors following dual vaccination with either vaccine. 4 donors had evidence of previous natural infection which is known to boost vaccine responses. Within the 53 infection-naïve donors the median antibody titre was 4030 U/ml (IQR 1892-8530) following BNT162b2 dual vaccination and 1405 (IQR 469.5- 2543) in the 74 patients after the ChAdOx1 vaccine (p=<0.0001). Spike-specific T cell responses were observed in 30% and 49% of mRNA and ChAdOx1 recipients respectively and median responses were 1.4-times higher in ChAdOx1 vaccinees at 14 vs 20 spots/million respectively (p=0.022). Conclusion: Dual vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 induces strong humoral immunity in older people following an extended interval protocol. Antibody responses are 2.9-times higher following the mRNA regimen whilst cellular responses are 1.7-times higher with the adenovirus-based vaccine. Differential patterns of immunogenicity are therefore elicited from the two vaccine platforms. It will be of interest to assess the relative stability of immune responses after these homologous vaccine regimens in order to assess the potential need for vaccine boosting. Furthermore, these findings indicate that heterologous vaccine platforms may offer the opportunity to further optimize vaccine responses.